The last 48 hours have been extraordinary regarding the future of the Prime Minister. When James Purnell resigned, I thought he was in serious trouble. He then carried out his reshuffle the next day (Monday would have been too late for him) and some of the other resignations did not hurt him, including Geoff Hoon’s. At that point, I thought that he was ok. When Caroline Flint resigned (I am astonished that she was not promoted further sooner), I thought that he was finished. I now err towards him being ok to carry on until next year.
I agree with Michael Portillo that his survival as Leader of the Labour Party is all about the Cabinet and what each of them do.
May prediction may change in the next few hours – what do you think?